A soldier receiving roses from locals in the Thai 2006 coup. Photo: David Yttervik Seetiangtham via flickr.com, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/.

Militaries Hold the Key to Power in a Dictator’s Endgame

September 14, 2018 / Aurel Croissant

Which factors shape the armed forces’ decision to boost or bust the rule of an incumbent autocrat in times of political turmoil? Political scientists at Heidelberg University analyzed non-violent mass mobilizations since 1946 and developed a game theory model that aims to explain the different military responses. Autocrats live dangerously. Although their average tenure is […]

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Rehany Mooy @ Unsplash.com

Indonesia as a Pillar in the EU’s “Pivot to Asia”

August 31, 2018 / Cora Jungbluth

The EU’s external relations are in turmoil. In the West, the United States has shaken the once reliable and stable transatlantic partnership to the ground. In the East, China is rising as a strong and self-confident power with political and economic interests that are not always in line with those of the EU. In these […]

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Pakistan General Elections 2018. Photo: Commonwealth Secretariat via Flickr, CC BY NC.
Hun Sen at the WEF in 2010. Photo by the Word Economic Forum (S. Thanachaiary) via commons.wikimedia.org, CC BY-SA 2.0

Cambodian Elections: Hun Sen’s unbroken dominance

July 27, 2018 / Markus Karbaum

Cambodia’s vote in July is designed to confirm strongman Hun Sen. After quashing the opposition, he is geared up to extend his 33-year stint at the top. The result of Cambodia’s parliamentary elections on 29 July is already fixed. After dissolving popular oppositional Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) in November 2017, Prime Minister Hun Sen […]

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The BRICS leaders, 2016. Photo by kremlin.ru via flickr.com, CC BY 4.0

Breaking BRICS: More Differences Than Similarities?

July 24, 2018 / Craig J. Willy

This month brings the tenth summit of the fast-growing BRICs nations – Brazil, Russia, India, and China and South Africa. But does the label still hold given the countries’ starkly different political and economic realities? Almost 17 years after Goldman Sachs coined the term “BRICs” for Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and later South Africa, […]

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#DemocracyWorldCup

World Cup 2018 Confirms: Democracies Better at Playing Football

July 23, 2018 / Sabine Donner

One of the many rituals of a football World Cup is to take comprehensive stock after the tournament. So it’s time to review our Democracy World Cup and analyze our predictions. Were we right in our thesis that there is a connection between a country’s democratic quality and the performance of its national football team? […]

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Photo by World Humanitarian Summit via flickr.com, CC BY-ND 2.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/

The New Turkey: Erdoğan’s Personal Fief

June 22, 2018 / Tilman Lüdke

Uncertainty abounds ahead of Turkey’s election. Will a floundering economy spell the end for President Tayyip Erdoğan? After an a series of steps towards liberalization between 2002 and 2012, Turkey’s AKP government showed its teeth in 2013: It announced plans to build a shopping mall on Gezi Park – one of the last green parts […]

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Mogadischu Life Economy. Photo by AMISOM Public Information via flickr.com, CC0 1.0, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

How to Boost East African Economies?

June 20, 2018 / Claire Elder

This month’s African Union Summit is poised to probe widespread corruption but a closer look at East Africa also reveals other pressing issues, not least rising political uncertainty, economic instability and violence. With the 31st African Union Summit around the corner, the African Development Bank recently underscored its support for East Africa’s bid for industrialization. […]

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#DemocracyWorldCup

Scoring with Free Elections and Civil Rights

June 13, 2018 / Robert Schwarz

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, an autocracy hosts the World Cup. Reason enough for us to uphold values such as inclusion, participation and fair play not only on the pitch but also in society as a whole. Because football and democracy have much more in common than it seems […]

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Andrés Manuel López Obrador, forerunner in the election race. Photo by Eneas de Troya via commons.wikimedia.org, CC BY 2.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en

Populists on Both Sides of the Wall?

June 09, 2018 / Daniel Kapellmann

Ahead of the Mexican election in July, a leftwing populist is the clear frontrunner amid exasperation with political corruption and snail-paced social reform. The Mexican presidential race was probably over the minute it began. Recent polls consistently put leftist populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador ahead, with a lead of at least 10 points versus the […]

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Welcome to the blog of the Bertelsmann Stiftung's Transformation Index.

We share local insights from our network of BTI experts and journalists in developing and transition countries.

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